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European Parliamentary Elections: Predictions So Far

Predictions in Spain suggest a repeat of the recent Spanish General Elections results.

More than 500 million citizens will be called to vote at the European Parliamentary Elections taking place between the 23rd and 26th of May, in what without doubt, will be a fundamental plebiscite for the future of the European Union.

Great Britain and Holland will be the first to vote on the 23rd, followed the next day by Ireland and then countries like Lithuania and Malta, and finally the rest of the member states, including Spain, will go to the polls on Sunday the 26th.

The most recent predictions indicate a loss of seats by the European People’s Party Group, Social Democrats and Conservatives as well as a slight increase for Liberals. The current composition of the groups in the Parliament could change, and it is possible that other new parties will erupt into the scene, including some from the ‘far-right’ and Euro-sceptics.

European Parliamentary Elections 2019

Among these are the Italian League of Matteo Salvini, who is looking for an alliance with the French leader Marine Le Pen, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and members of the Alternative for Germany, and the Danish Popular Party among others.

In Spain, the elections will be held on the 26th which is the same day on which there will be municipal and autonomic elections nearly a month after the national elections which were held on the 26th of April.

The principal Spanish parties have chosen their lists with a single candidate for the entire national territory. The tendency appears to be for a similar performance as was seen in the General Election with the CIS (Centre of Sociological Investigations), pointing out to a victory of the PSOE, followed by the Partido Popular, Ciudadanos and Podemos a short distance behind, and finally Vox, which would enter the European Parliament with minimal representation in contrast to their results for congressional and senate seats.

However, the great controversy revolves around the permission given by the Spanish courts for the ex-President of the Catalan Government Puigdemont and two of his ex-councillors who are also fugitives to present as candidates for “Lliures per Europa”.

Charles Puigdemont European Parliamentary Elections
Charles Puigdemont

The elections this month will show what concerns citizens of the European Union. According to recent data from ‘Eurobarometer’, those matters include immigration and terrorism, as well as the economy and unemployment which dominated the 2014 elections.

It is important to try to increase the level of participation and the European Parliament has launched the website in 24 languages. The aim is to help the 150,000 volunteers in all member states who have agreed to do whatever is necessary to encourage citizens to vote.

Local Elections Are A Sea of Doubt

European Parliament Spanish Elections

Also of importance are the local elections in Spain, which will determine local government issues which are more close to the average citizen.

Although the tendency is for the consolidation of the progressive vote, here the personality of the candidate for Mayor has a great deal of pull. For this reason it is not unusual to find a radical disparity between results in General and Local Elections.

In the Campo de Gibraltar it is expected that the PSOE will perform well, although it will be more difficult for it to do so in La Linea and Algeciras where Juan Franco and Jose Ignacio Landaluce (La Linea 100 x 100 and the PP) have a great deal of local support. However, it seems that in San Roque, Tarifa, Jimena, Los Barrios and Tesorillo a PSOE victory is almost a foregone conclusion, although it remains to be seen whether it will obtain a majority.

Finally, there is uncertainty in Los Barrios as to whether Los Barrios 100 x 100 or the PSOE will win.

What do you think?